How can one assess the economic situation in Russia now? Some said it would surely collapse. It has not collapsed. Nevertheless, the economy demonstrates resilience.
Why? The Central Bank fixed a high rate. The National Wealth Fund is diminishing, but part of it remains. Putin can maintain equilibrium by reducing the consumption level of pensioners, teachers, doctors, while supporting a high level of life for police and FSB employees who ensure the absence of political protests. Also, half the world has not joined the sanctions. It is easier for Putin to bypass sanctions, yes, this costs money.
But resilience is not everything. The economy stagnates, high inflation continues. There are cracks. Entrepreneurs complain, including to Putin himself. Russians are dissatisfied – pensioners are dissatisfied, officers are dissatisfied, billionaires too. Putin has less money. He will have to further reduce the level of life for Russians. He needs to pay more and more money for people to go to war. This situation is dangerous for any head of state. The work of a dictator is not safe work.
Do sanctions work against regimes such as Vladimir Putin's regime? If you wanted Putin to leave – it does not work. If you wanted Putin to stop the war – it does not work. But if you want Putin to have fewer soldiers and missiles – of course, they work. Thanks to sanctions, Putin does not have an endless amount of money to buy soldiers or technology in China. He needs money for all this. Putin has less and less money. This saves Ukrainian lives. Imagine a situation where there are no sanctions. Putin would have hundreds of billions of dollars and euros. The situation on the battlefield would be different. Ukraine has endured today, including thanks to sanctions.
Introducing sanctions is the only instrument against a regime possessing nuclear weapons, because nobody wants to unleash war against Vladimir Putin. Western countries are also slow; important oil sanctions were introduced later. Half the world not joining sanctions is also an important victory for Putin. How long can this system continue to live? We do not know. This will continue until the political system cracks.
